There are a plethora of effects and indicators, both legitimate and fanciful, that market observer like to reference.
On the more whimsical side of the ledge are indicators pertaining to the World Series and what country cover model of Sports Illustrated’s swimsuit issue hails from. Then there is the January Effect, the scenario where small-caps lead large-caps in the first month of the year, setting the broader market up for a (usually) positive result for the year. The January Effect has earned its stripes because of its penchant for accuracy.
The Super Bowl Theory may not have the credentials of the January Effect, but its track record is good enough that one thing is clear: Investors who are not devout Denver Broncos fans ought to cheer for the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII on Feb. 2.
“The Super Bowl Predictor Theory says that the market will gain for the year if an NFC (National Football Conference) team or an AFC (American Football Conference) team with an NFC origin wins the game, otherwise the market will fall – totally irrelevant items to the market. However, the indicator has been correct 37 of the last 47 years, or 78.7% of the time, on a total return basis for the S&P 500,” according to Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
This year’s game sets the NFC Seattle Seahawks against the AFC Denver Broncos. If Seattle wins the theory says that the S&P 500 will be up this year; if Denver wins the market closes down.
******
The views expressed here are that of myself or the cited individual or firm and do not constitute a recommendation, solicitation, or offer by myself, D2 Capital Management, LLC or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service. D2, its clients, and its employees may or may not own any of the securities (or their derivatives) mentioned in this article.
The Jacksonville Business Journal has ranked D2 Capital Management in the top 25 of Certified Financial Planners in Jacksonville. The Firm is also a member of the Financial Planning Association of Northeast Florida, the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, the Southside Businessmen's Club, and the Beaches Business Association.
No comments:
Post a Comment