Sunday, March 23, 2014

Municipal Bond Performance

The performance of municipal bonds generally has been positive year-to-date 2014. Some analysts feared the new municipal bond issues would likely to derail this momentum but so far it has not. As the chart suggests, the decline in yields of AAA-rated municipal bonds for the week is representative of healthy demand as investors appear to become re-focused on the municipal bond market. All of the foregoing seems to be a stamp of approval on a potential about-face for performance from 2013.


Source:  Market Vectors Portfolio Manager and Senior Municipal Strategist James Colby

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The D2 Capital Management Tax Free Income Portfolio is currently yielding 4.75% (Trailing 12 month Tax Equivalent Yield at 28% Tax Bracket, of 21 March 2014).

The views expressed here are that of myself or the cited individual or firm and do not constitute a recommendation, solicitation, or offer by myself, D2 Capital Management, LLC or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service. D2, its clients, and its employees may or may not own any of the securities (or their derivatives) mentioned in this article.

 The Jacksonville Business Journal has ranked D2 Capital Management in the top 25 of Certified Financial Planners in Jacksonville.  The Firm is also a member of the Financial Planning Association of Northeast Florida, the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, the Southside Businessmen's Club, and the Beaches Business Association. 

Four Reasons Businesses Could Begin Spending Again Soon

By Russ Koesterich, CFA, Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock and iShares Chief Global Investment Strategist

Despite record profits and exceptionally high corporate cash levels, capital spending by U.S. businesses remains subdued.

While companies clearly have the means to invest, they lack the confidence in the face of a still nervous consumer and uncertain end-user demand. In other words, low confidence and an unusual amount of policy uncertainty are likely impeding corporate spending. In addition, capital spending has also been kept in check by the lackluster nature of the recovery.

However, four interrelated reasons suggest capital spending may marginally improve this year.

  • Improving consumer confidence. Despite the government shutdown and unimpressive recovery in the labor market, consumer confidence, while low, is improving. During the back half of 2013, the Conference Board’s measure of consumer expectations averaged a little below 78, a material improvement from the previous four years when this measure of consumer sentiment averaged below 60. While today’s levels are still far below the long-term average, they are heading in the right direction.
  • Better economic growth. I expect the U.S. economy to grow by at least 2.5% this year, above last year’s 2% rate. This should provide CEOs and CFOs with greater conviction on end-user demand.
  • Normalization in real interest rates. The improving economy is leading to a normalization in real interest rates, which suggests higher rates of return on investment. In fact, to the extent the macro environment continues to improve and the Federal Reserve (Fed) exits its quantitative easing (QE) program by year’s end, I would expect real long-term yields to continue to normalize, a development that in the past has been associated with higher levels of capital spending.
  • Companies have little choice. While still relatively low by official estimates, capital utilization rates are probably overstating the amount of excess capacity, given the rapidly aging nature of the capital stock. In short, we are likely to see an increase in capital spending because in many industries, there will be little choice.
Given the above trends, my baseline expectation for 2014 is that capital spending continues to improve, a trend that was already evident in the latter part of 2013.

So why does this matter for investors? To the extent there is even a modest pickup in capital spending in 2014, this should help support U.S. equity market valuations. In terms of specific beneficiaries, I believe capital spending is likely to be led by financial, telecom and service industries. This suggests that technology stocks may be beneficiaries if capital spending begins to accelerate.

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The views expressed here are that of myself or the cited individual or firm and do not constitute a recommendation, solicitation, or offer by myself, D2 Capital Management, LLC or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service. D2, its clients, and its employees may or may not own any of the securities (or their derivatives) mentioned in this article.


 The Jacksonville Business Journal has ranked D2 Capital Management in the top 25 of Certified Financial Planners in Jacksonville.  The Firm is also a member of the Financial Planning Association of Northeast Florida, the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, the Southside Businessmen's Club, and the Beaches Business Association. 

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Super Global Dividends With This Fund

By Tom Lydon, ETF Trends

For the first time on record, global dividends topped $1 trillion last year. The number was $1.03 trillion to be precise and plenty of countries and regions got in on the dividend growth act.

Members of the S&P 500 were big contributors to that number, chipping in almost $312 billion in payouts, but dividends spurted higher in other developed markets such as Australia and the U.K. Emerging markets companies contributed $1 of every $7 in global dividends last year. British firms threw in over $102 billion.

The Global X SuperDividend ETF (SDIV) is one way for income investors to get a little bit of everything when it comes to global dividends. SDIV, which tracks the Solactive Global SuperDividend Index, features a trailing 12-month yield of 6.74% and pays its dividend monthly, giving investors a steady income stream.

The advantage of SDIV’s monthly dividend cannot be understated, particularly because many foreign companies only pay dividends once or twice per year. “Compound interest is a powerful force. The more you compound your money over time, you more you will end up with at the end. So, it makes sense to invest in a stock or ETF which pays out its dividend monthly, as opposed to another investment which pays quarterly, semi-annually or annually,” writes Steve Nicastro on Seeking Alpha.

After a 23.6% weight to the U.S., SDIV allocates over 30% of its combined weight to Australia and the U.K. Australian companies paid $40.3 billion in dividends last year, nearly double the amount paid in 2012. Led by financial services and mining names, Australian dividends are expected to continue growing this year.

SDIV, which equal weights its 100 holdings, has $848.6 million in assets under management, over $600 million of which came into the ETF last year.

SDIV’s beta against the S&P 500 and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index are 0.99 and 0.87, respectively, according to issuer data. Emerging markets allocations within the ETF are scant with China and Brazil combining for just 3.8% of the fund’s weight.

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Global X SuperDividend ETF (SDIV) is a component of the D2 Capital Management Multi-Asset Income Portfolio.  Current SDIV dividend yield is 6.61% (as of 19 March 2014).

Disclosure:  I own the D2 Capital Management Multi-Asset Income Portfolio

The views expressed here are that of myself or the cited individual or firm and do not constitute a recommendation, solicitation, or offer by myself, D2 Capital Management, LLC or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service. D2, its clients, and its employees may or may not own any of the securities (or their derivatives) mentioned in this article.


 The Jacksonville Business Journal has ranked D2 Capital Management in the top 25 of Certified Financial Planners in Jacksonville.  The Firm is also a member of the Financial Planning Association of Northeast Florida, the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, the Southside Businessmen's Club, and the Beaches Business Association. 

Rate-Sensitive Real Estate Investment Trusts Rebound

By Tom Lydon, ETF Trends

Dragged to laggard status during last year’s spike in 10-year Treasury yields, interest rate-sensitive real estate investment trusts (REITs) and the exchange traded funds that hold those stocks have rebounded in noticeable fashion in 2014.

Year-to-date, the Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ), the largest REIT ETF by assets, is up by nearly 11%.

REITs and REIT ETFs have gained favor with income investors “because they offer attractive yields with an alternative asset class that can produce excellent returns in this type of stable-interest-rate environment. However, the downside is that they are susceptible to declines if we get back into another rotation of higher interest rates and weakening housing data,” according to FMD Capital Management.

While there is no denying the group’s sensitivity to rising interest rates, one that often prompts concerns about REITs’ ability to continue growing dividends, investors have returned to REIT ETFs in a big way in 2014’s more sanguine rate environment.

As of March 6, real estate ETFs attracted $3 billion in asset inflows, or 31% of all money going into sector-based ETFs, Bloomberg reports. Real estate ETFs have brought in 43% more than the net deposits the funds saw over all of 2013.

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Vanguard REIT (VNQ) is a component of the D2 Capital Management Multi-Asset Income Portfolio.  Current VNQ dividend yield is 2.77%.

Disclosure:  I own the D2 Capital Management Multi-Asset Income Portfolio

The views expressed here are that of myself or the cited individual or firm and do not constitute a recommendation, solicitation, or offer by myself, D2 Capital Management, LLC or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service. D2, its clients, and its employees may or may not own any of the securities (or their derivatives) mentioned in this article.

 The Jacksonville Business Journal has ranked D2 Capital Management in the top 25 of Certified Financial Planners in Jacksonville.  The Firm is also a member of the Financial Planning Association of Northeast Florida, the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, the Southside Businessmen's Club, and the Beaches Business Association. 


Tuesday, March 18, 2014

What's the best asset allocation now?

By Cam Albright, director of asset allocation at Wilmington Trust

Equities remain the best tactical option but there's value in bonds too

Looking back at the strong stock market gains of 2013, especially those recorded in the final quarter of the year, many investors could be forgiven for being lulled into thinking that we were in for another robust year on Wall Street in 2014.

Well, January certainly put a chill into those thoughts and while February provided a decent rebound, markets are still unsettled. Through the first two months of the year, stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, gained a whopping 1%.

Faced with such whiplash-inducing events, what is an investor to do? Was the early year volatility a harbinger of a declining stock market or was the dramatic turnaround in February the face of financial markets in 2014?

Equities remain the best tactical option

The stock market still has momentum for further gains and we expect a more normal growth environment to help propel earnings higher, leading to further equity gains.

Why?

The global economic recovery should continue despite the slowdown in emerging market growth rates:

  • Europe's economy, though still weak and now subject to concerns over the Ukraine, appears to be stabilizing.
  • The U.S. economy is likely to continue to grow more quickly, if slowly by historical norms, than most other developed economies.
  • The U.S. recovery continues to generate investor confidence, in part because of the rebound in housing.
  • U.S. GDP growth will accelerate to 2.5% or better in 2014, as the effects of U.S. fiscal drag decline and housing and business investment continue to increase.
  • The Federal Reserve is likely to remain accommodative well into 2015.
  • Corporate earnings growth is expected to drive equity performance in the coming year:
  • Our estimate of S&P 500 Index profits in 2014 is $118 per share, up from an estimated $110 per share for 2013. Our 2014 profit estimate is slightly conservative relative to the consensus forecasts of both top-down strategists and bottom-up company analysts ($119 and $121, respectively).
  • We forecast that on Dec. 31, the S&P 500 will be trading in a range of 1,890 – 2,016. The range reflects estimated price/expected earnings ratios of 15 to 16 times and an earnings per share forecast of $126 for the 12 months ending Dec. 31, 2015.
Keep your eyes open

In real life, we know that weather can impact visibility. Fog or blizzard conditions can make it impossible to see very far, creating any number of hazards. This winter's bad weather has made its way into the realm of economics, where data releases — many of which have been below expectations — are quickly dismissed as being impacted by "the weather."

We entered 2014 believing that the economy was well-positioned for growth in the 2.5 to 3.0% range — and still believe that this year will continue the process of normalization from the financial crisis. But we are attentive to the fact that the jury is still out regarding weather being entirely to blame for some of the economic misses we have seen.

Again, as in real life, we will have to wait for the weather to clear from the statistics to measure the full impact and, perhaps more importantly, to see if other factors are holding activity back. However, we still look for growth to be in the 2.5 to 3.0% range as the year progresses, which enables us to remain comfortable with our overweight equity exposures.

Potential value and protection in the bond market

Having produced negative returns last year and still facing the prospect of rising interest rates this year, bonds are considered by many to be a poor investment choice. But we believe that the fixed income market is offering a potential haven in the 1 to 5 year maturity part of the yield curve.

The rationale behind this view stems from comments made by the Federal Reserve and the current shape of the yield curve. The Fed has made it clear that it intends to reduce its quantitative easing program, and that is likely to reduce pressure on longer-term bond yields, allowing them to normalize at higher levels.

At the same time, the Fed has indicated it is likely to keep short-term rates low for some time, probably into the fall of 2015 according to the Fed Funds futures market. The longer end of the curve is likely to move higher but we do not expect the short end to respond in the same way. As a result, investors who have portfolios in the 1 to 5 year maturity range are likely to face minimal principal erosion while picking up income returns that may average 1% for Treasury investors. The same works with investments in corporate bonds or municipals with the prospect of higher income returns.

But we should also point out that this scenario will not last forever. When the Fed decides to start raising short-term rates, investors will want to reevaluate their portfolios, possibly considering that it may make sense to be positioned further out the yield curve, as the bulk of the damage from rising rates will have already been done to that part of the curve.

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The views expressed here are that of myself or the cited individual or firm and do not constitute a recommendation, solicitation, or offer by myself, D2 Capital Management, LLC or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service. D2, its clients, and its employees may or may not own any of the securities (or their derivatives) mentioned in this article.


 The Jacksonville Business Journal has ranked D2 Capital Management in the top 25 of Certified Financial Planners in Jacksonville.  The Firm is also a member of the Financial Planning Association of Northeast Florida, the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, the Southside Businessmen's Club, and the Beaches Business Association. 

The Bull Market Can Continue

By Russ Koesterich, CFA, Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock and iShares Chief Global Investment Strategist

Investors have been brushing off geopolitical worries and mixed economic data in recent weeks, pushing stocks to record highs and the bull market into its sixth year. While equities are no longer cheap, we believe stocks can still move higher given low rates, low inflation and a gradually improving economy.

But Gains Will Be More Modest & Volatile - We foresee modestly higher US and global growth in 2014 and believe that much of the disappointing economic data released earlier this year was weather related. still, we expect more modest US market gains and more market volatility in coming months given ongoing geopolitical turmoil, Federal Reserve (Fed) tapering and the still fragile environment in emerging markets. in addition, if US economic numbers don’t improve in coming months or if the geopolitical situation worsens, stocks and other risky assets may become more vulnerable.

Interest Rates Likely to Modestly Rise - Soft economic data, institutional buying and geopolitical tensions sent yields lower in early 2014, but we think the Treasury price rally has been overdone, and we still expect the 10-year Treasury to rise to around 3.25% to 3.5% by year’s end. Despite tapering, the Fed is likely to keep short-term interest rates low through early next year given soft labor market conditions and inflation.

Equities Still Worth Overweighting - Even after a five-year bull market, valuations and the economic environment suggest maintaining an overweight to stocks, which we believe still offer better value than bonds.

Especially International Ones -While US equity market gains will likely be more modest in 2014, international stocks have room for multiple expansion, and we continue to advocate exposure to select developed and emerging markets.

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The views expressed here are that of myself or the cited individual or firm and do not constitute a recommendation, solicitation, or offer by myself, D2 Capital Management, LLC or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service. D2, its clients, and its employees may or may not own any of the securities (or their derivatives) mentioned in this article.


 The Jacksonville Business Journal has ranked D2 Capital Management in the top 25 of Certified Financial Planners in Jacksonville.  The Firm is also a member of the Financial Planning Association of Northeast Florida, the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, the Southside Businessmen's Club, and the Beaches Business Association. 

Monday, March 17, 2014

Tech Funds Become Dividend Plays

By Todd Shriber, ETF Trends

It has been one of the leading contributors to S&P 500 dividend growth since the end of the financial crisis, but the technology sector still is not thought of by investors as a dividend destination on par with the likes of consumer staples, health care and other sectors.

Perhaps it is because the notion of dependable, growing dividends from technology, the largest sector weight in the S&P 500, is still a new phenomenon. Whatever the reason, tech is only starting to get some dividend attention and deservedly so. At the end of last year, the 44 stocks in the S&P 500 Information Technology Index had an average yield of 1.64%, according to CNBC.

As CNBC notes, tech dividends are low compared to high-yielding sectors like utilities, but that also means there is room for payout growth. Some tech Exchange Traded Funds have benefited from Apple’s (AAPL) as the second-largest U.S. dividend payer in dollar terms behind Exxon Mobil (XOM).

Investors hunting for exposure to tech payouts via dividend ETFs need to do some homework. Several of the largest U.S. dividend ETFs use dividend increase streaks as part of their screening methodology, but because tech dividend growth has only escalated in the past several years, the sector is lightly represented in some of those ETFs. The three largest U.S. dividend ETFs by assets have a combined weight to tech of less than 12%.

Tech’s lack of representation in traditional dividend ETFs has opened the door for ETFs such as the First Trust NASDAQ Technology Dividend Index Fund (TDIV) to gain traction.

TDIV turns two in August and already has more than $400 million in assets. Plus, its trailing 12-month yield of 2.32% is decent by the standards of tech ETFs. Dow components Intel (INTC), IBM (IBM), Cisco (CSCO) and Microsoft (MSFT) combine for over 32% of TDIV’s weight. Constituent companies are required to yield at least 0.5% and have paid a dividend in the past year.

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First Trust NASDAQ Technology Dididend Income Fund (TDIV) is a component of the D2 Capital Management Multi-Asset Income Portfolio.  Current TDIV dividend yield is 2.32%.

Disclosure:  I own the D2 Capital Management Multi-Asset Income Portfolio

The views expressed here are that of myself or the cited individual or firm and do not constitute a recommendation, solicitation, or offer by myself, D2 Capital Management, LLC or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service. D2, its clients, and its employees may or may not own any of the securities (or their derivatives) mentioned in this article.


 The Jacksonville Business Journal has ranked D2 Capital Management in the top 25 of Certified Financial Planners in Jacksonville.  The Firm is also a member of the Financial Planning Association of Northeast Florida, the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, the Southside Businessmen's Club, and the Beaches Business Association. 

3 Last-Minute Tax Tips

By Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, editor of Macro Trend Investor and chief investment officer of the investment firm Sizemore Capital Management

We’re down to the last few weeks before April 15, the day more commonly known as “tax day,” among a few other colorful descriptions that are best not printed.

If you haven’t filed your tax return yet, chances are good that you’re not expecting a big refund. But it’s not too late to do a little last minute tax planning, and you might be surprised by how much a few tax tips can lower your tax bill or — hope springs eternal — actually secure a decent-sized refund.

Let’s take a look at some tax tips that can keep a little more cash in your pocket this April:

Contribute to an IRA or HSA Plan

Whether you have a longstanding IRA, recently rolled over your 401k into an IRA or have an HSA plan, this is a great place to start.

For tax year 2013, you can contribute $5,500 to an IRA or Roth IRA and $6,500 to either if you are age 50 or older. The Roth IRA, as a general rule, is a better long-term financial planning vehicle. But if you’re looking to take a dent out of your tax bill today, you’ll want to contribute to a traditional IRA, as the Roth offers no tax break in the year of the contribution.

How much can you save by making a contribution? It depends on your tax bracket, but let’s consider an example. If you’re filing as a married couple with a combined income between $72,501 and $146,400, you fall in the 25% marginal tax bracket. Contributing $5,500 will mean $1,375 in tax savings. Contributing a combined $11,000 will save you $2,750.

The same goes for Health Savings Account (HSA) contributions. If you buy your own health insurance and it is HSA-compatible, an HSA can be thought of as something like a “spillover” retirement account if you have already maxed out your IRA or 401k. And unlike IRAs — in which your ability to take a deduction can be phased out or eliminated if you already contribute to an employer 401k plan — HSA accounts have so such conditions.

In 2013, an individual policyholder can contribute a maximum of $3,250 to an HSA, and a family can contribute $6,450.

Though hardly a revolutionary idea, parking cash in an IRA or HSA is a last-minute tax tip that works.

Child Care Expenses

Next on this list of tax tips are child care expenses. If you have kids and you pay for daycare, mother’s day out or for the services of a nanny, tally up what you paid in 2013. It could give you a nice tax credit.

The Child and Dependent Care Credit can seem a little complicated at first, but I can sum it up like this. If you pay for childcare expenses so you can work outside the home, $3,000 in expenses for the first child (or a total of $6,000 in expenses for two or more children) can be used to calculate the credit. The $3,000 (or $6,000) is multiplied by a factor that varies by income. For example, if your household’s adjusted gross income is more than $43,000, the factor is 0.2. (Don’t worry, popular tax programs such as TurboTax will make these calculations for you.) The factor is greater the less your income is.

So, for a family with two or more dependent kids, the tax credit would be calculated as $6,000 * 0.2 = $1,200.

It’s not uncommon for parents to pay tens of thousands of dollars in child care expense, so it can be frustrating that the amount used in the credit calculation is capped at $6,000. Still, a $1,200 reduction in your tax bill is nothing to laugh off, particularly considering that you were going to be making these expenses anyway.

A few things to note: To qualify, your kids must be under age 13, and the expenses must legitimately be used to allow a parent to return to work. For example, if a family has a stay-at-home mom who is not gainfully employed, they would not be able to apply any preschool or early development classes to the credit.
Also, only expenses you pay for yourself are eligible for the credit. Employer-provider care actually reduces the credit, though it also reduces your taxable income. If you have any doubts, talk to your CPA.

Check for Donations

For one final last-minute tax tip, dig through your bank statements and receipts for any donations you made to charities last year. Whether it was a check you left in the offering plate on Sunday or a gift you gave to your university or the local homeless shelter, taken in total, they could amount to a good-sized deduction.
Remember: To write off any charitable contributions, you have to itemize. Often, if you have a home mortgage, you will pay enough in mortgage interest and other home-related expenses to surpass the standard deduction. In 2013, that amounts to $6,100 for an individual or $12,200 for a couple filing jointly.

It’s also important to keep good records. Larger charities will usually send you a statement at the end of the year summarizing your donations. But smaller charities often won’t, so you’ll want to keep a copy of your bank or credit card statement or a receipt.

Cash donations are pretty straightforward, as are donations of stock or other items with a listed market value. Donations of clothes or personal items can get a lot more complicated because the “value” of the items in question can be somewhat subjective. TurboTax and other mainstream tax programs will offer guidance, but as a note for the future, I recommend taking a photo of any clothes or personal items donated to keep for your records. In the event you are audited, they can add support to your estimated values.

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On all tax issues be sure to consult with your accountant or tax preparer.

The views expressed here are that of myself or the cited individual or firm and do not constitute a recommendation, solicitation, or offer by myself, D2 Capital Management, LLC or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service. D2, its clients, and its employees may or may not own any of the securities (or their derivatives) mentioned in this article.

 The Jacksonville Business Journal has ranked D2 Capital Management in the top 25 of Certified Financial Planners in Jacksonville.  The Firm is also a member of the Financial Planning Association of Northeast Florida, the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, the Southside Businessmen's Club, and the Beaches Business Association. 


Friday, March 14, 2014

All Part of the Cycle

By Scott Chan, Leeb's Market Forecast

The equity rally turned five years old last week as the S&P 500 continues to close at or near record highs. After reaching a low of 666 on March 6, 2009, the S&P 500 has rocketed up 34% in 2013, 60% since 2011 and an astronomical 205% from its 2009 lows.  While these extraordinary returns have helped portfolios recover from 2007 and 2008, the general investor’s psyche lags the market.

In early 2014, investors were shaken by two different events. In January, concerns over potentially slowing growth in China combined with the decision by Argentina’s central bank to devalue its currency sent shock waves throughout the emerging markets and smaller ripples into the U.S. market. With the stock market down 5 percent, panic seemed to spread throughout the market. Headlines exalted an end to the five year bull-run and commonly warned investors to prepare for a significant retraction. However, within two weeks, the markets had rebounded and had erased all losses. In fact, the entire cycle from peak to trough and back to peak lasted only one month.

Increased tensions in Ukraine caused the S&P 500 to drop by more than 1 percent in a single day. Once again, predictions that a conflict in Ukraine could cause a global slowdown splashed across the headlines. Within one day, the markets recovered as tensions seemed to ease. While the situation in Ukraine is far from over, as of now it appears that the fears of the investing public are far greater than the financial effects most likely to occur.

The sustained positive momentum does not presage another significant rise in equities for 2014. Valuations, while within historical ranges, still look high. Furthermore, while disappointing economic indicators could be blamed on the harsh weather this winter, it is possible the U.S. recovery could again stall and frustrate hopes for a full blown expansion. These risks are real and important to remember when investing. However, it is equally important to realize that dips and peaks remain ever-natural parts of any normal market cycle.

As seen in the chart below, even during one of the strongest rallies in the history of the S&P 500, we have seen pullbacks of 11 percent, 16 percent and even 20 percent. In the midst of a correction, it is difficult to keep one’s emotions in check. Memories of a one-day, 700 point decline in the Dow or a 50 percent market decline are too painful to forget. At the same time, successful investing demands focus on the long term, and not a myopic view of day-to-day ups and downs or aberrations.


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The views expressed here are that of myself or the cited individual or firm and do not constitute a recommendation, solicitation, or offer by myself, D2 Capital Management, LLC or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service. D2, its clients, and its employees may or may not own any of the securities (or their derivatives) mentioned in this article.


 The Jacksonville Business Journal has ranked D2 Capital Management in the top 25 of Certified Financial Planners in Jacksonville.  The Firm is also a member of the Financial Planning Association of Northeast Florida, the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, the Southside Businessmen's Club, and the Beaches Business Association. 

March Market Update: More Volatility

By FidelityViewpoints

The U.S. economy should provide stability, but it's going to be a bouncier market.

The good news is the U.S economy should provide fundamental support and stability, but it’s going to be a bouncier market, a little noisier, more turbulent perhaps than we’ve seen in the last couple years, says Dirk Hofschire, senior vice president of Fidelity Asset Allocation Research.  He answers two main questions:

We've seen a bit more softening in economic data. Is this a worsening trend?

That is the million-dollar question. Is this the beginning of a new trend or is it a weather-related issue?  I think it’s going to come down on the side of this being mostly weather related. There have also been some seasonal adjustments, which makes it hard at this time of year to figure it out. I think the underlying trend is still solid, and one of the reasons is that I don't see any fundamental changes to the midcycle underpinnings that I’ve been talking about for the last several months.

So I’m focusing less on the noisy data that's been moving back and forth the past few weeks, and more on leading economic indicators. The consumer— the biggest driver of the U.S. economy— remains stable. I think one of the reasons is that the employment market is continuing to improve. Payroll numbers have been somewhat disappointing, but leading indicators like consumer confidence in jobs and small-business intentions to hire are still going up, so I think unemployment’s coming down. Put that together with low inflation and real wage growth, and there is a good outlook.

Looking at some sectors like housing and business investment, the numbers have been relatively noisy. But I think the supply-demand fundamentals and housing are still fairly balanced. Business investment profits are strong and there’s less policy and fiscal uncertainty than we've had in years past. Put this all together and I think the U.S. is still in a solid trend. We’re going to see a weaker first quarter as a result of the weather, but it's still a self-sustaining midcycle expansion.

What's your outlook for the stock market the next few months?

As we started the year, my thesis was that it is going to be a more volatile year than last year. In 2013, risk markets—especially in the U.S.—rose fairly steadily without a lot of volatility. We’ve already seen quite a bit of volatility right out of the gates in January. February was somewhat calm, but now Ukraine and Russia are in the news and we’re seeing more volatility again. Volatility is going to be my expectation over the next few months. In part, because we've had several years of asset price increases. There's more good news priced into these markets now than there had been in the past. There are also catalysts from slower liquidity growth out of the Federal Reserve, China's imbalances, and the political risk we’re seeing in Eastern Europe and other places, which have the potential to unsettle markets. The good news is that the U.S. economy hasn't changed and should still provide some fundamental support and some stability for markets, but it’s going to be a bouncier market, a little noisier, more turbulence perhaps than we’ve seen in the past few years.

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The views expressed here are that of myself or the cited individual or firm and do not constitute a recommendation, solicitation, or offer by myself, D2 Capital Management, LLC or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service. D2, its clients, and its employees may or may not own any of the securities (or their derivatives) mentioned in this article.


 The Jacksonville Business Journal has ranked D2 Capital Management in the top 25 of Certified Financial Planners in Jacksonville.  The Firm is also a member of the Financial Planning Association of Northeast Florida, the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, the Southside Businessmen's Club, and the Beaches Business Association. 

How women who divorce can help protect their future

By Fidelity Viewpoints

For people over 50, the divorce rate in the United States is on the rise. Just one in 10 people who divorced in 1990 was age 50 or older; twenty year later it was one in four, according to Dr. Susan Brown, professor of sociology at Bowling Green State University and co-author of “The Gray Divorce Revolution." “If late-life divorce were a disease,” says Jay Lebow, a psychologist at the Family Institute at Northwestern University, “it would be an epidemic.”

Reasons for the surge in splits vary. Increasing longevity offers more risk that couples might grow apart; the kids have grown up and moved out, taking with them reasons for staying together; more women are working, with some of them outearning their spouses; and, there’s less stigma to calling it quits.

Whatever the reason, later-life divorce hits women especially hard. After a divorce, household income drops by about 25% for men—and more than 40% for women, according to U.S. government statistics. “Gray divorce can be economically devastating, especially for women who have been out of the labor force,” says Dr. Brown.

At the same time, retirement is more expensive when you’re solo rather than half of a twosome. On a per-person basis, the cost of living for singles is 40% to 50% higher than for couples, according to the American Academy of Actuaries. And another consequence of a mid- to later-life split is that there’s less time to recover financially, recoup losses, retire debt, and ride out market ups and downs. Meanwhile, women’s life expectancy is climbing into the 80s, meaning that they may be living longer with less.

So how can women over 50 protect their financial future when they go solo? Here are a few dos and don’ts to consider:

Seven Divorce Dos:
1. Plan ahead. Careful preparation before your divorce may pay off. For instance, having a financial planner or accountant work with your divorce lawyer or mediator can help you make the right decisions about a divorce settlement that includes a more comfortable retirement.

2. Gather all records. “The three most important words during divorce are document, document, document,” says Ginita Wall, a financial planner and co-founder of WIFE.org (Women’s Institute for Financial Education). Make a clear copy of all tax returns, loan applications, wills, trusts, financial statements, banking information, brokerage statements, loan documents, credit card statements, deeds to real property, car registrations, insurance inventories, and insurance policies. Copy records that can trace and verify your separate property, such as an inheritance or family gifts.

3. Know what you owe. Hidden debt is a common nasty surprise among divorcing couples. In the nine states with community property laws—Arizona, California, Idaho, Louisiana, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Washington, and Wisconsin—you’ll be held responsible for half your spouse’s debt, even if the debt isn’t in your name. You may also run into trouble in a non–community property state if you and your spouse hold credit cards or loans jointly. Get a full credit report to make sure there are no surprises on it. Annualcreditreport.com provides free credit reports every 12 months from each of the three credit bureaus.

4. Document your household goods. Take photos of valuables around the house—jewelry, art, Oriental carpets, the sterling silver tea set. It’s not unheard for divorcing spouses to hide assets from one another.

5. Get your fair share. Half of everything is yours—if you acquired it during your marriage—whether you want it or not. Even if you’ve always abhorred that LeRoy Neiman painting your husband insisted on buying, it can be used to trade for something you do want. If you helped put your husband through graduate school, law school, or medical school, you may be entitled to some reimbursement for the cost of his tuition.

6. Keep close tabs on legal and adviser fees. What you pay your divorce advisers will come out of your settlement, so make sure you keep track of what they are spending on your behalf. Remember that your lawyer is a paid professional who is billing you at an hourly rate. Be mindful of the time your lawyer spends with and for you.

7. Check Social Security benefits. Although many age-50-plus women have had successful careers, their ex’s earnings may provide a larger Social Security benefit. You are eligible to collect those benefits if you meet the following conditions:

  • You must be age 62 or older.
  • You must have been married for 10 years or longer.
  • You must not be currently married.
  • Your own earnings must not entitle you to receive a higher benefit.

And there's more good news for divorcees. According to the Women's Institute for a Secure Retirement (WISER), you can receive your share of your ex-spouse's Social Security benefits without filing any special papers at the time of the divorce, and—as long as you remain unmarried—you will qualify for those benefits even if your ex marries again.

Four Divorce don'ts:
1. Don’t necessarily hold onto the house. Your house may have sentimental value, but keeping it doesn’t always make financial sense, especially if it’s a stretch to pay for the upkeep and property taxes. Compared with a well-diversified retirement savings account, a home is more likely to have ongoing and unexpected expenses, and its future value isn’t assured.

2. Don’t ignore tax consequences. Should you take monthly alimony or a lump sum? Should you take the brokerage account or the retirement plan? Should you keep the house or sell it now? Who should pay the mortgage until it sells? You may need to consult an accountant or tax adviser to determine what makes sense for your situation, and if there’s a chance that your past joint tax returns omitted income or overstated deductions, you may want to consider an indemnification clause to protect yourself in case of an audit.

3. Don’t forget about health insurance. If you’ve been covered by your spouse’s policy, you may face a gap in coverage after your divorce and before Medicare kicks in at age 65. If you don't have coverage of your own at work, you can continue your spouse's existing coverage through COBRA for up to 36 months, but your cost is likely to be substantially more than it was before the divorce. It may also be more expensive than the health care coverage you can get from your state's health insurance exchange under the new Affordable Care Act, so it's best to check. Couples who can’t afford new, separate health insurance policies may want to consider a legal separation instead; that way, you can keep your ex’s health insurance but separate the other assets.

4. Don’t immediately roll over your ex’s retirement account into an IRA. If your divorce settlement allocates assets under a qualified domestic relations order (QDRO), you can make a one-time withdrawal from your ex’s 401(k) or 403(b) without paying the normal 10% tax, even if you’re under age 59½. If you think you’ll need money for unavoidable divorce expenses, you may want to make the withdrawal rather than doing a rollover. Otherwise, if you roll the money into an IRA and then need to tap it for divorce costs, you’ll be subject to the standard 10% early withdrawal penalty.

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The views expressed here are that of myself or the cited individual or firm and do not constitute a recommendation, solicitation, or offer by myself, D2 Capital Management, LLC or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service. D2, its clients, and its employees may or may not own any of the securities (or their derivatives) mentioned in this article.


 The Jacksonville Business Journal has ranked D2 Capital Management in the top 25 of Certified Financial Planners in Jacksonville.  The Firm is also a member of the Financial Planning Association of Northeast Florida, the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, the Southside Businessmen's Club, and the Beaches Business Association. 

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Investors Turn Bullish on Gold Funds

By Max Chen, ETF Trends

Institutional investors and speculators are extending the rally in gold exchange traded funds, with bullion experiencing its best start in six years, as the standoff on the Crimea peninsula fuels safe-haven demand.

The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) has gained 1.7% since Russian troops entered Ukraine at the start of the month. The ETF is now up 11.2% year-to-date.

Hedge funds and other speculators are increasing bets on gold futures for the fourth week and are now the most bullish since December 2012, with gold prices rising about 12% to a high of $1,350 per ounce this year, Bloomberg reports.

Meanwhile, investors are pouring back into gold-related ETFs, with GLD poised for its first quarterly asset gain in a year, after investors dumped the asset last year in anticipation of Fed tapering.

According to Bloomberg data, gold-backed ETF holdings increased by 8.4 metric tons, the most since October 2012, to 1,762.5 tons.


“The Ukraine situation is lending support to gold,” Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC, said in a separate Bloomberg article. “The fear premium is back because of the developments.”

Fueling the bets on safe-haven gold, Russian forces have been tightening their hold over Crimea as the aggressor largely ignores international penalties.

“The Ukraine matter is still a worry among traders and investors, and has moved closer to the front burner of the marketplace,” Jim Wyckoff, a senior analyst at Kitco Metals Inc., said in a report. “The Russian occupation of Crimea is a bullish factor for the safe-haven gold market.”

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Gold Bullion or SPDR Gold Trust Shares (GLD) are not part of D2 Capital Management Portfolios but some D2 Clients hold GLD in their accounts.

The views expressed here are that of myself or the cited individual or firm and do not constitute a recommendation, solicitation, or offer by myself, D2 Capital Management, LLC or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service. D2, its clients, and its employees may or may not own any of the securities (or their derivatives) mentioned in this article.


 The Jacksonville Business Journal has ranked D2 Capital Management in the top 25 of Certified Financial Planners in Jacksonville.  The Firm is also a member of the Financial Planning Association of Northeast Florida, the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, the Southside Businessmen's Club, and the Beaches Business Association. 

Tech Dividend Payers Offer Good Value

By Kiplinger's Retirement Report

During the dot-com bubble of the late 1990's, it was rare for a technology stock to pay a dividend.  Since then, the dividend landscape in the tech sector has changed big time - attracting marquee names such as Microsoft and IBM, and lately Apple.

Today, 68% of technology stocks in Standard & Poor's 500-stock index pay a dividend.  And those dividend-paying tech stocks contribute a larger percentage of the index's indicated dividend than any other sector.

Tech stocks currently sell at a price-to-earnings ratio slightly lower than that of large-company U.S. stocks.  That does not mean they are bargains, but many offer decent value.  And dividend-paying technology stocks are likely to provide much more growth than traditional income sectors such as utilities.

If you like the idea of technology stocks, but do not want to buy individual stocks, consider First Trust NASDAQ Technology Dividend Fund (TDIV).  The exchange traded fund currently holds 87 stocks in the technology and telecommunications sectors.  While telecom is limited to 20% of holdings, it does help boost the portfolio's yield.  To be included in this fund, a stock must not have cut its dividend within the past 12 months.


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First Trust NASDAQ Technology Dididend Income Fund (TDIV) is a component of the D2 Capital Management Multi-Asset Income Portfolio.  Current TDIV dividend yield is 2.32%.

Disclosure:  I own the D2 Capital Management Multi-Asset Income Portfolio

The views expressed here are that of myself or the cited individual or firm and do not constitute a recommendation, solicitation, or offer by myself, D2 Capital Management, LLC or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service. D2, its clients, and its employees may or may not own any of the securities (or their derivatives) mentioned in this article.


 The Jacksonville Business Journal has ranked D2 Capital Management in the top 25 of Certified Financial Planners in Jacksonville.  The Firm is also a member of the Financial Planning Association of Northeast Florida, the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, the Southside Businessmen's Club, and the Beaches Business Association. 

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Preferred Stock Funds Offer High Yields

By Tom Lydon, ETF Trends

Preferred stocks are a type of hybrid security that show bond- and equity-esque characteristics. The shares are issued by financial institutions, utilities and telecom companies, among others. Within the securities hierarchy, preferreds are senior to common stocks but junior to corporate bonds. Preferred stocks issue dividends on a regular basis, but investors are unlikely to enjoy capital appreciation on par with common shares.

Exchange traded funds that track preferred stocks provide investors with an attractive source of yields. However, as witnessed last year, preferred shares are vulnerable to rising interest rate environments.

As benchmark 10-year Treasury yields stay below 3%, Investors have found preferred stocks as an attractive alternative source of income.

Nevertheless, with the Fed tapering its bond purchasing program and looking to the jobs market and economy as indicators for the eventual hike in benchmark rates, preferred stocks could be vulnerable ahead.

Preferred stock ETFs began to decline in May 2013 on Fed tapering and on concerns of rising interest rates.

“Much like bonds, preferred stock becomes less attractive in a rising rate environment, so preferred stocks must decline in price to bring their yield up to an attractive level,” according to Morningstar analyst Abby Woodham. “Most preferred stock is either perpetual or extremely long-dated, which exposes investors to significant interest-rate risk.”

Moreover, investors need to be aware that preferred stock ETFs have a heavy exposure to the financial sector.

The PowerShares Preferred Portfolio (NYSE: PGX) employs a credit screen, so component holdings have a higher credit quality than other preferred ETFs. The financial services sector also looms large in the fund, accounting for 87.9% of its holdings. PGX shows a 6.41% 12-month yield, The ETF is up 5.2% year-to-date.

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PowerShares Preferred Portfolio (PGX) is a component of the D2 Capital Management Multi-Asset Income Portfolio. 

Disclosure:  I own the D2 Capital Management Multi-Asset Income Portfolio

The views expressed here are that of myself or the cited individual or firm and do not constitute a recommendation, solicitation, or offer by myself, D2 Capital Management, LLC or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service. D2, its clients, and its employees may or may not own any of the securities (or their derivatives) mentioned in this article.


 The Jacksonville Business Journal has ranked D2 Capital Management in the top 25 of Certified Financial Planners in Jacksonville.  The Firm is also a member of the Financial Planning Association of Northeast Florida, the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, the Southside Businessmen's Club, and the Beaches Business Association. 

Sunday, March 9, 2014

Real-Estate Funds May Be Attractive

By Bloomberg News

Investment flowing into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on real estate this year has already eclipsed the 2013 total as concern over rising interest rates subsides and property markets improve.

In 2014, 31 percent of money going into U.S. sector-focused exchange-traded funds, or $3 billion through March 6, was for real estate, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s 43 percent more than the net deposits the funds attracted in all of 2013, and a greater share of total ETF contributions than any time since at least 2012.

Investor expectations that interest rates won’t climb dramatically have made commercial property and mortgages attractive as the economy grows. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) fell last year as the Federal Reserve said it would pare its unprecedented bond buying, which lowered borrowing costs for deals. Landlords are filling office, industrial and retail space amid a lack of new construction, brightening the outlook.

“If you trust the bond market, which we do, we’re in an OK environment for cost of capital,” said Jim Sullivan, managing director at Green Street Advisors Inc., a Newport Beach, California-based REIT research company. “We have enough economic growth to keep buildings full to allow landlords to push rents, not a lot, but a little.”

Vanguard Leads

ETFs are securities that track an index or basket of stocks or bonds in a given market or industry sector. They can be easily traded and come with low costs. Inflows to U.S. ETFs more than tripled to $183 billion last year from 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Vanguard Group Inc.’s REIT Index ETF (VNQ) has led real estate products in attracting money with $1.25 billion in inflows in the past month. In second was BlackRock Inc.’s iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF, which gained about $506 million, according to Bloomberg data.

The biggest component of both ETFs is Simon Property Group Inc., the largest U.S. mall owner. The Indianapolis-based REIT has climbed 7.5 percent not including dividends this year after a 3.8 percent decline in 2013, its worst performance since 2008. The company in January reported an 8 percent jump in fourth-quarter funds from operations, a REIT measure of cash flow, as occupancies and rents climbed.

Investors put $97.5 million into the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM) in the past month, making it No. 4, Bloomberg data show. The ETF tracks an index made up of mortgage REITs, such as Annaly Capital Management Inc., its largest holding, which has returned 12.4 percent this year. The fund offers a yield, using calculations by the Securities and Exchange Commission, of 11.2 percent, according to BlackRock’s website.

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Vanguard REIT Index Fund (VNQ) and iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped Find (REM) are components of the D2 Capital Management Multi-Asset Income Portfolio. They currently yield 3.95% and 14.61% respectively.

Disclosure:  I own the D2 Capital Management Multi-Asset Income Portfolio

The views expressed here are that of myself or the cited individual or firm and do not constitute a recommendation, solicitation, or offer by myself, D2 Capital Management, LLC or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service. D2, its clients, and its employees may or may not own any of the securities (or their derivatives) mentioned in this article.


 The Jacksonville Business Journal has ranked D2 Capital Management in the top 25 of Certified Financial Planners in Jacksonville.  The Firm is also a member of the Financial Planning Association of Northeast Florida, the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, the Southside Businessmen's Club, and the Beaches Business Association.